A new tax-cutting, subsidy-slashing finance minister
is shaking up Quebec Inc. But is a province so reliant
on government largesse ready for Yves Séguin?
By
Konrad Yakabuski
Canadian
Business Magazine
October 13, 2003
The offices of the Quebec Ministry of
Finance sit kitty-corner to the Château Frontenac,
amid North America's oldest real estate. For its first
century, the Renaissance-style edifice housed Quebec's
Superior Court. In fact, the building, which became
the provincial finance headquarters in 1983, has been
deemed a historic site--its now dormant courtroom cannot,
by law, be altered in any way. To enter it is to be
transported back in time. It is here that some of Quebec's
most famous cases, the ones that still nourish the
collective psyche, took place. Like the sensational
1920 trial of Marie-Anne Houde, sentenced to hang for
the relentless abuse that ultimately claimed the life
of her 10-year-old stepdaughter, Aurore Gagnon. The
story of Little Aurore, known simply as Quebec's "child
martyr," still carries such freight in the province
that a 1952 movie version of her short and tragic life
is currently the subject of a big-budget remake.
A few doors down and across the hall from the courtroom
is the office of Yves Séguin. It is fitting,
in a way, that Quebec's new finance minister has taken
up residence in what was once a judge's chamber. Since
he was named to the pivotal post by neophyte Premier
Jean Charest in April, Séguin has effectively
put Quebec Inc. on trial. He is out to remake the very
foundations of the relationship between business and
government in the province. At least, he says he is.
On tabling his first budget in June, Séguin
set the tone for his tenure with a noninterventionist
twist on the famous Kennedy phrase: "Rather than
asking what the state can do for us, let us ask ourselves
what we can do without the state."
Skeptics will dismiss the discourse as the hyperbole
of a new minister who has yet to confront the inertia
of government. They risk being surprised. Séguin,
52, has always had a knack for reading the public mood.
If he has embarked on a mission to get the state out
of Quebec's boardrooms, it is likely because he believes
the climate is ripe for it. "It is the first time
since the Quiet Revolution that a lot of the old ways
are being questioned," says Clément Gignac,
chief economist at Montreal-based National Bank of
Canada. "It's a big shift in philosophy. We've
got a Republican-style government now."
Séguin was a rising young star in the cabinet
of Robert Bourassa when he quit as revenue minister
in 1990 over the then-Liberal government's decision
to harmonize its provincial sales tax with the GST.
It was a matter of principle, he said then. Whether
or not the move was also calculated to distance himself
from one of the most hated policies in Canadian history,
his timing was bang on. Both the provincial Liberals
and federal Conservatives were trounced in subsequent
elections.
Despite a reputation as a straight talker unafraid
to criticize his own team, Séguin-an accomplished
pianist in his spare time-was endlessly courted by
federal and provincial parties of all stripes during
a 12-year hiatus in the private sector. He spurned
every advance. Until now. He is already considered
the leading contender to replace Charest if the latter
returns to federal politics one day.
Ambition aside, Séguin says he has returned
to government "to finish a job I started." He
earned the nickname "the Robin Hood of taxpayers" during
his previous political incarnation for his dogged determination
to simplify Quebec's tax system and favor the little
guy. "I have never liked taxes," Séguin,
who is a tax lawyer, says without a hint of irony. "I
resigned over the GST because I thought it was an unfair
tax. Income taxes, sales taxes--I have always fought
to reduce them. Always."
Now, he is finally in a position to do something about
it. Séguin has promised to slash Quebecers'
personal income taxes by 27% over five years, starting
with a $1-billion cut next year that rises to $5 billion
annually by 2008. The goal is to bring Quebec's tax
rates--the highest in the country--in line with the
Canadian average. It is an ambitious, some say impossible,
objective in an economic climate of slowing growth
and employment. Barring a miracle, it will require
enormous cuts to program spending--outside the sacrosanct
spheres of health and education, in which Charest has
vowed to significantly boost expenditures.
Séguin has started by weaning business from
the abundant state supports it has relied on since
the Quiet Revolution. In his first budget in June,
Séguin slashed most tax credits to business
by 25%, or $760 million annually. He promises it is
just the beginning of the reforms, ones that will fundamentally
change a government that reached the acme of interventionism
under Parti Québécois Premier Bernard
Landry into one of the least meddlesome in the country. "An
American state government rarely goes beyond contributing
20% to a private-sector project," Séguin
notes. "In Quebec, where the government is involved,
the average is 50%, and there are lots of projects
where it's 70%. That is just unreasonable. We need
to achieve a more normal state of affairs."
That won't be easy in a province that has always prided
itself on being different, and where the state has,
for the past 40 years, played a preponderant role in
economic development. But it may not be as tough as
realizing Séguin's plan to wrest billions more
from Ottawa annually. That plan involves forming a
common front of premiers in order to correct a "fiscal
imbalance" with Ottawa that, Séguin contends,
shortchanges the provinces by $8 billion a year. Quebec
alone is out $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion annually
under current federal-provincial arrangements, according
to Séguin. And with spending in provincial spheres
of jurisdiction (read: health) projected to outpace
revenue growth for years to come, while Ottawa wallows
in surpluses, the situation will only get more out
of kilter.
Séguin is betting the provinces are sufficiently
fed up to launch a united strike against the federal
government. Indeed, at the annual premiers conference
in Charlottetown in July, the provincial leaders signed
on to Charest's proposals to create both a Council
of the Federation and--the name says it all--a Secretariat
for Information and Co-operation on Fiscal Imbalance.
The premiers-only council will hold its founding meeting
in Quebec City in October, where it will entertain
a plan from the Secretariat for reforming the system
of equalization payments to the provinces.
Séguin is the Secretariat's one-man brain trust.
No one knows as well, or has his mind for, the hopelessly
complex domain of fiscal federalism. Two years ago,
he chaired a provincial commission on the topic. And
for the next two at least, the Secretariat he championed
will be headquartered only a few doors down from his
office in the Quebec finance building. Once the first
to pack up its marbles and go home, Quebec is now organizing
the game. No one is more responsible for that than
Séguin.
Séguin was born in remote Val-d'Or, in Quebec's
northwestern Abitibi district, where his father labored
in the gold mines that sustained the region's economy
during the 1950s. The family moved to Hull when Yves,
the youngest of three boys, was 7. The Séguins
were apolitical, but early on in life Yves betrayed
an inclination toward elected office. "I was always
class president," he notes proudly. "I always
liked being out in front."
Séguin started as a psychology major at the
University of Ottawa, but switched to law when he learned
the latter offered better prospects for a job. Lucky
for him, because the switch allowed Séguin to
discover his passion for tax law. (Well, somebody has
to be passionate about it.) "I adore complicated,
complex matters," he explains. "Sometimes
in life, you find something and you just click with
it." In 1977, Séguin got a job at one of
Ottawa's biggest accounting firms, Maheu, Noiseux (now
part of Deloitte & Touche ), without so much as
a CA designation. "They never looked at my résumé.
So I guess they hired me thinking I was an accountant.
Anyway, by the time they found out, they figured it
was OK."
No kidding. In fact, they promoted the eager 26-year-old.
It was just after the watershed 1976 election that
brought the PQ to power in Quebec. Ottawa is a border
town, so Séguin, as the newly named head of
the firm's tax department, passed his days giving tax
advice to Quebecers wanting to transfer assets to Ontario.
The exercise only seemed to make Séguin, if
not embrace sovereignty, then at least grow more attached
to his home province. In 1980 he moved back across
the Ottawa River for a job at one of the Outaouais
region's leading law firms, Beaudry, Bertrand and Associates.
Partner Paul Bertrand remembers being impressed by
his young colleague. "He was only really at the
beginning of his career, yet he gave off an aura of
self-confidence," Bertrand recalls. "It was
clear his time at the firm would only be a stepping-stone."
In 1982, Séguin was picked by the big-league
Montreal law firm Martineau Walker (now Fasken Martineau)
to open its Quebec City branch. During his stint there,
Séguin became the French media's favorite talking
head on the arcane intricacies of tax law. He revealed
himself as a natural communicator, comfortable in front
of the camera. Inevitably, political recruiters came
calling. Until then, Séguin had never entertained
a political career, much less for the Liberals. His
two older brothers had been PQ supporters. (Indeed,
brother Raymond was named a provincial judge under
PQ Premier Jacques Parizeau.) But Bourassa proved persuasive. "By
sheer dint of being asked to run, I ended up saying,
'Why not?'" Without deep roots in the region,
and facing a popular incumbent PQ cabinet minister,
Séguin became the Liberal candidate in the Montmorency
riding east of Quebec City in 1985. He won handily.
Séguin, a political rookie, made no secret
of the fact that he coveted the revenue portfolio.
Barely 18 months after his election, he got his wish,
and immediately impressed his colleagues with a plan
to simplify Quebec's tax system. He scored points with
the public, too. In 1989, he had his own two-hour TV
special on a major network to explain his new, easier-to-understand
tax form and to field calls from the public. The show
was such a ratings hit--more than a million Quebecers
tuned in--that he repeated the exercise in early 1990. "It
bothers me to see big companies hold a news conference
to announce a fabulous deal worth many hundreds of
millions of dollars in profit, and two weeks later
they're bragging that they don't pay income tax," Séguin
said in April 1990. "It's fine for them to tell
me it's legal. I say, let's change the law." The
media had found a darling.
Séguin's profile rose even further when he
emerged as one of the most nationalist members of the
Liberal caucus during the dying days of the Meech Lake
Accord, the federal-provincial entente that was to
recognize Quebec as a "distinct society" in
the Canadian Constitution. The accord died in June
1990 when two provincial legislatures failed to ratify
the deal. It was taken personally in Quebec, pushing
support for independence above 50% in the polls. Faced
with cuts in transfer payments from Ottawa, a rising
federal debt and the GST, even Séguin conceded
that "profitable federalism no longer exists." It
might, he concluded, be worth considering other options. "Call
it sovereignty, call it autonomy, call it national
affirmation--that's not important. We can face up to
any situation. We are no longer afraid. That's a new
phenomenon. And who is better placed than the minister
of revenue to tell you that, economically, Quebec has
everything it takes?" Séguin's credentials
as a Quebec-firster, a prerequisite to attaining higher
office in the province, were firmly established.
Unfortunately, Séguin's political career came
to an abrupt halt later that year when Bourassa spurned
his advice and decided to harmonize Quebec's sales
tax with the new federal goods and services tax. "Let's
be frank, the GST exasperates me," Séguin
said a week before resigning in September 1990. For
Séguin, the new harmonized tax--ironically,
introduced by Charest's then-government--was "imperfect
and unfair," he asserted, because it lightened
the tax burden of wealthy corporations by $1.5 billion
while digging deeper into the pockets of the poorest
and most vulnerable members of society. "In order
to 'untax' 30,000 businesses, we're going to tax three
million ordinary Quebecers? The debate is there....
You can call me Robin Hood or Che Guevara if you want.
I have convictions." Political analysts wondered
at the time whether Séguin's departure was more
the result of being passed over for the finance post
after the 1989 election than a clash of ideals. Séguin
did not deign to respond. Two days after his resignation,
he gave a piano recital of his own composition at the
Grand Théâtre de Québec. Citing
the French poet Jacques Prévert, he told the
audience: "There are no small things, there are
no great things. There are only things we believe in
and things we do."
In little more than a decade in the private sector,
Séguin held down more than half a dozen different
jobs, from big-name corporate lawyer to the Bank of
Montreal's No. 2 executive in Quebec. In between, he
ran the Canadian operations of la Compagnie générale
des eaux--the precursor to Vivendi Universal SA--when
it unsuccessfully floated a proposal to privatize Montreal's
water supply. None of the roles appeared to fully suit
him. Then, in 2001, Landry tapped him to head up a
commission to investigate and recommend ways to correct
the fiscal imbalance with Ottawa. It was a role tailor-made
for Séguin. It also irked Liberals that he had
accepted a PQ appointment. On learning of Séguin's
nomination, Charest could not hide his bitterness. "Mr.
Landry has reduced the unemployment rolls by one," he
snapped--a direct jab at Séguin and his inability
to hold a job for long.
Six months into his tenure as chair of the commission,
in October 2001, Séguin faced the toughest test
of his life. He was struck by a variant of the deadly
flesh-eating disease, the bacteria spreading throughout
his blood system. "They pump you full of an astronomical
quantity of the best antibiotics available, make a
sign of the cross and wait 30 hours," Séguin
says in recalling the ordeal. Faced with death, he
re-evaluated life. "I simply realized," he
says, "that I wanted to put my energies into things
of which I would be proud for having contributed."
In the following months, he met with Charest, who
needed Séguin more than Séguin needed
the Liberals. As he prepared for an election, Charest
lacked a star candidate from the financial community.
By early 2003, Mario Dumont's upstart, right-wing Action
Démocratique du Québec (ADQ) had overtaken
the Liberals in support among francophone voters, and
had attracted big business names such as Canam Manac's
Marcel Dutil and ex-National Bank of Canada executive
Léon Courville to its ranks. It was no secret
that the ADQ was also courting Séguin. So was
the PQ, which was experiencing a resurgence in the
polls under a rejuvenated Landry. The Liberals faced
being reduced to a stump of seats in English Quebec.
Charest's political career hung in the balance. A defeat
provincially would surely end his aspirations of one
day moving into 24 Sussex Drive.
Under the circumstances, Séguin had an unbeatable
hand. Charest had little choice but to promise him
a safe seat, Outremont, and the finance portfolio if
the Liberals were victorious. Séguin still hesitated.
It was only after his three children--Mathieu, 21,
Sara, 18, and Olivier, 15--came to him after hearing
rumors of his candidacy in the media that he says he
made up his mind. "They said, 'Dad, you quit politics,
but politics never quit you. If you decide to run,
we'll support you.' I would never have run otherwise." Séguin's
wife, Marie-Josée Nadeau, an executive vice-president
and corporate secretary at Hydro-Québec, also
knew where her husband's passion lay. She's a former
chief of staff to a Liberal cabinet minister. Politics
brought her and Séguin together in the first
place.
While a Liberal victory was no sure thing when Séguin
announced his candidacy in March, it was a no-brainer
by election day on April 14. In unveiling his first
cabinet, Charest gave each member a concise assignment. "We
are the most taxed people on the continent," he
told Séguin. "You are going to rid us of
that title." To do so, Séguin faces daunting
obstacles, not the least of which is a budgetary shortfall
of as much as $4 billion that the Liberals inherited
from the PQ. Séguin managed to table a balanced
budget for 2003-2004, but only, in part, by making
steep cuts to business subsidies, canceling spending
increases and capital tax cuts announced by the previous
government, and using up this year all of the $800
million in federal transfers that the PQ had set aside
for health spending over the next three years.
The budgetary gap will be even tougher to bridge next
year. Economic growth is faltering. In March, PQ Finance
Minister Pauline Marois predicted Quebec's economy
would expand by 3.5% this year. In his June budget,
Séguin downgraded the projection to 2.5%. Now,
many economists think Quebec will be lucky to achieve
2% growth. While the province led the country in employment
growth in 2002, creating 118,000 jobs, it lost 32,700
jobs in the first eight months of this year, sending
the unemployment rate to 10% in August--a five-year
high. In his budget, Séguin predicted Quebec
would create 61,000 new jobs this year. He'll do well
to stanch the losses already experienced.
"If Séguin wants to table a balanced budget
and cut taxes next year, he's going to have to reduce
the size of government a lot more," concludes
National Bank's Gignac. It's a nasty job. Pierre Fortin,
an economist at Université du Québec à Montréal,
puts it this way: The untouchables--health, education
and interest on Quebec's $112-billion debt--account
for $38 billion, or almost 70% of the province's $55-billion
budget. So, unless Séguin can increase revenues
elsewhere, the $5-billion income tax cut he has promised
within five years has to come out of the remaining
$17 billion in program spending. "It's a risky
strategy," Fortin says of Séguin's promised
tax cut. "If he proceeds too quickly, the Liberals
risk repeating 1966 all over again."
Back then, Premier Jean Lesage was booted out of office
by an electorate traumatized by the rapid change wrought
by the Liberals' Quiet Revolution. Already, Charest's
Liberals are testing Quebecers' tolerance for change.
They have signaled an end to the province's popular
universal $5-a-day day care system. They have unfrozen
electricity rates, allowing Hydro-Québec to
apply to the provincial energy board for an increase
next year. They have slashed regional development funds
and reneged on a PQ promise to contribute $220 million
toward a proposed $1-billion expansion of an Alcoa
aluminum smelter in Deschambault, throwing the project
into doubt. They have alienated social activists by
vowing to cut off able-bodied welfare recipients who
don't look for a job. Quebec's powerful union movement
is vowing to fight Charest's plans to contract out
more government services and exempt businesses with
less than $1 million in revenues from an obligation
to spend at least 1% of their payroll on employee training.
The Liberals have irked the arts world with cuts to
film-production tax credits. They have sent the high-tech
and biotech sectors into crisis mode by slicing 12.5%
off Quebec's much-envied research-and-development tax
credit program.
Perhaps Séguin's reputed political antennae
have told him Quebecers are ready for all this upheaval
if the result is a more dynamic economy. Almost two-thirds
of Quebecers voted in April for either the Liberals
or the ADQ, both of which were peddling right-of-centre
policies. That must say something about their preparedness
for change, about their desire for a politics that
focuses on something other than constitutional cleavage.
Or does it? "Analyzing the election results is
like trying to detect a signal amid a lot of interference," says
Fortin. "But there is, I think, a movement in
the population toward greater individual responsibility." Still,
there has been no major realignment of the political
spectrum. And there is no certainty that Quebecers'
recent flirtation with a three-party system is anything
but that. "The PQ got a fright, but it still elected
more than 40 MLAs and many young ones," concedes
Laval University political science professor and ADQ
president Guy Laforest. "The Liberals won a bit
by default. The electorate wanted change and concluded
that the ADQ wasn't ready to govern."
There is one issue, however, on which a large majority
of francophone Quebecers agree: that fiscal federalism
is stacked in Ottawa's favor. Hence, the all-party
support for Séguin's quest for a better deal.
A Conference Board of Canada report prepared for Séguin's
2001-2002 fiscal imbalance commission projected that,
given current trends, the federal surplus would balloon
to $90 billion by 2019, while Quebec would face a $5-billion
deficit. Between now and then, Ottawa would amass surpluses
totaling $570 billion, while Quebec would fall $60
billion deeper into debt. Federal politicians, including
then-Finance Minister Paul Martin, ridiculed the study,
suggesting such long-term projections are impossible
to make. But Séguin's cause has gained supporters
in every provincial capital.
One solution to the imbalance floated by Séguin
involves the outright abolition of the Canadian Health
and Social Transfer (CHST); instead, Ottawa should
simply hand over GST revenues to the provinces. The
value of CHST payments--made up of cash and tax points--has
seesawed over the past decade, falling precipitously
in Martin's 1995 budget, and rising only slowly since
then. In February, Ottawa agreed to increase the cash
transfers by $10 billion over three years, and kick
in another $2 billion this year if the 2002-2003 federal
budget surplus comes in over $5 billion (something
Finance Minister John Manley has since deemed a long
shot). The provinces are happy to get the cash, but
they hate the way Ottawa goes about giving it--begrudgingly
and arbitrarily. "It's insulting," Séguin
says. "Take the $2 billion extra we're supposed
to get this year. Mr. Manley hasn't said 'no' outright,
but he says that maybe Ottawa won't be able to honor
its promise. But if Ottawa really believed that it
needed to invest in health, why couldn't it make that
a priority in its budget?"
A quick end to this type of quarreling could be achieved,
Séguin says, if Ottawa would simply give up
control of the GST. There is a neat symmetry at work
in such a trade-off. The sales tax brings in about
$28 billion a year; Ottawa transfers about $20 billion
in cash to the provinces under the CHST. The difference,
about $8 billion, is the amount the provinces are currently
being shortchanged, says Séguin. He sees no
irony in the fact that he is now seeking jurisdiction
over a tax that, a decade ago, he could not in good
conscience administer. Quebec already collects the
GST on Ottawa's behalf, he notes, and if the province
controlled the tax it could choose to reform it as
it wished. If Ottawa has so far refused to consider
the idea, Séguin is undeterred. "There
is a new balance of power taking root as the provinces
organize themselves. Ten or 15 years ago, it was always
Quebec, all alone, that complained. Now, the provinces
are on the same wavelength."
Fortin, however, sees a more fundamental obstacle.
Federal program spending has fallen to about 12% of
GDP, from 17% in 1994. Withholding cash transfers is
Ottawa's sole means of coercing the provinces into
respecting the terms of the Canada Health Act. "The
impression in Ottawa is that if it continues to reduce
its role in the economy and health care, the federal
government will simply cease to be relevant," Fortin
says. No prime minister, certainly not Paul Martin,
would want to preside over that outcome.
Séguin, however, has a secret weapon in Charest.
No Quebec premier has ever known Ottawa and the rest
of the country as well as Charest, and none have enjoyed
the goodwill of their federal and provincial counterparts
as solidly as the Mulroney-era cabinet minister. "Inasmuch
as Mr. Charest's 'Canadian baggage' was an obstacle
to him becoming premier in Quebec, the moment he was
elected it became a huge advantage," says Laforest.
The question remains: Can Séguin and Charest
form an effective tag team, or will their relationship
disintegrate into a Chrétien-Martin hatefest?
Séguin is clearly more nationalist and less
interventionist than his premier and, despite his protestations,
may have leadership ambitions of his own. The pair
are just embarking on a major overhaul of their government--the
buzzword "re-engineering" is on everyone's
lips in Quebec City--and its relationship with Ottawa.
The Charest-Séguin alliance will be severely
tested in the months to come. But Séguin, a
man who has faced death more directly than most, is
not thinking about that now: "In the past couple
of decades, the citizen has become disconnected from
government. You see it in low voter turnout, in the
rise of the black market. No one trusts the government
anymore. If I am able, just a bit--without pretension
and beyond the heaviness of the task that awaits me--to
change that, I'll be content."
Gravy drain
Will business put up with Quebec's R&D tax
credit cuts?
Quebec has long been Canada's fiscal paradise for
research. But Finance Minister Yves Séguin's
first budget has led many to worry the gravy train
has passed. Before, firms were eligible for a reimbursable
tax credit equivalent to 20% of R&D costs. Now
it's down to 17.5%. "That 2.5% could make all
the difference between being competitive or not when
foreign multinationals consider granting a world R&D
mandate to their Canadian subsidiaries," warns
Howard Silverman, president and CEO of Montreal-based
Corporate Affairs International, which advises companies
on site selection. "Combined with the appreciation
of the Canadian dollar, you could be talking about
a 3.5% difference in costs. That makes Quebec even
less competitive. It's very scary."
Séguin retorts that Quebec's R&D tax credits
are still the most attractive in the country, if not
on the continent. And site-specific tax credit programs--like
former premier Bernard Landry's pet project, la Cité du
Multimédia, which enabled high-tech firms to
claim a tax credit worth up to 40% of labor costs if
they located in a certain Montreal office complex--have
been outright sinkholes. The five site-specific programs
created under Landry will cost the government $252
million this year, Séguin says. He adds that
only 5,370 of the 17,551 jobs at these sites are actually
new positions, as opposed to jobs that already existed
at other locations. The net cost to the taxpayer for
each new job created is $30,000, says Séguin.
He suspended new applications for the programs in his
budget.
Silverman--who has helped the Quebec operations of
Swedish communications giant Ericsson AB win five world
research mandates since 1990, boosting its engineering
staff from 10 to 1,700--worries Séguin has set
the wrong tone. "Many of my clients fear that
this is the end of these kinds of incentives," he
says. "I think we're giving investors the wrong
impression, because in the world of site selection,
you've got to play to be in the game. Séguin's
decision may come back to bite him."
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