As Paul Tellier grapples with a do-or-die dilemma,
a controlling patriarch looks over his shoulder.
Is Bombardier's crisis too dire for even the superman
of CEOs?
By
Konrad Yakabuski
Report on Business Magazine
September 2004
Corsica, birthplace of Napoleon
and a reluctant French possession since 1768, is a hard
place to tame, as much physically as politically. The Mediterranean
island is dominated
by a rugged mountain range that culminates 2,700 metres
above sea level on Monte Cinto. Its roads are correspondingly tortuous
and, following
European tradition, narrow. Since the place has been
riven for decades by separatist tensions, the threat of a bomb going
off is always disquietingly
real. Corsica is a type-A kind of colony.
It could be
a hazardous place to spend your summer vacation—especially
on a motorcycle. One blink and you're over the cliff.
Yet this is where Paul Tellier chose to pass five days
in June, utterly alone, riding his
rented Yamaha 900 along some of the most treacherous
terrain known to man. “I couldn't think about Bombardier,” Tellier
recalls. “If
I had, I wouldn't be here now. That is some very, very
dangerous road.”
Tellier—who made sure not to tell Bombardier's
board about the excursion until after it was over—survived
the mind-clearing trip without a scratch. The same cannot be said
of his
current pilgrimage
as CEO of “the Bomber.” Since being handpicked by chairman
Laurent Beaudoin in late 2002 to save the once-unstoppable
plane-and-train maker from oblivion, Tellier, 65,
has suffered his share of scrapes and
bruises. It has been a frustrating, if not humbling,
assignment for the man who was lionized for transforming
Canadian National Railways
from
a moribund, money-losing Crown corporation into a
darling of investors and an industry leader. It's been unsettling,
too, for many investors,
who expected Tellier to somehow execute a CN-style
makeover
at Bombardier only months into his tenure.
Bombardier,
in fact, is still torn by a crisis of confidence unprecedented
for a Canadian blue chip (save, of course,
for Nortel).
The stock price is barely half of what it was when
Tellier started on Jan. 13, 2003. It is roughly one-sixth
of where it stood at its pre-Sept.
11, 2001, high. Yet Tellier has done everything he
can to change this. He's been shaking things up as
if Bombardier's two principal divisions
were a pair of maracas. Dancing to Tellier's beat
has been too much for many managers, who've been sacked
for sticking to the more placid pace
of the past.
It's been tough, too, for Beaudoin and
his in-laws, the Bombardier family, who've seen their
treasured trust twisted into an
almost unrecognizable form. There's been massive
write-offs, a $1.2-billion equity issue and the sale
of the company's birthright, the Ski-Doo/Sea-Doo
division. A wholesale rationalization—costing 6,600 jobs,
or 18.5% of the work force—is under way in the train unit.
There's a top-to-bottom reorganization of accounting and financial
reporting
methods that has employees at every level pulling
their hair out as
they try to meet Tellier's
demands for transparency and, above all, simplicity.
Making things simple, it turns out, is complicated.
Not, however, as complicated as the challenge that Tellier faces
in the coming months. Bombardier must
decide by early 2005 whether to develop a new family
of jets in the 100- to 135-seat category. Its
current offering of regional jets (RJs) maxes out
at 86 seats. Bombardier's only real competitor in
RJs, Brazil's Embraer, opted a few years ago
to move into the 100-seat stratum. Its E190 series
will
hit the skies in 2006. Bombardier also looked into
the 100-seat market a few years
ago, but opted not to proceed with a new plane.
That decision has now left it scrambling, afraid
of being left behind. To differentiate itself
from Embraer's product, Bombardier is contemplating
a new family of planes in the 115-to-135-seat range,
which would put it squarely in the sights
of the two biggest players in the industry—Boeing of the
United States and Europe's Airbus.
This is the dilemma
that dwarfs all the others that Tellier faces. There's
no guarantee the venture
will work. But without a wider
offering—de rigueur in the business today—Bombardier
stands to lose orders for even its smaller planes. “What
if Bombardier does nothing?” asks Canaccord Capital analyst
Robert Fay. “If
they do nothing, they're in trouble.”
Tellier, not long ago
corporate Canada's most admired CEO, is today surely
its least envied. His 18 months
at Bombardier have already made his decade-long
stint at CN look like a sinecure in comparison.
That is saying a lot, considering the surgery he
performed at CN. He essentially cut the work force
in half and engineered the most successful
privatization in Canadian history, raising $2.2
billion for the federal treasury. He bought two
important U.S. railways, turning CN into a truly
North American player. And he would have made it
the continent's biggest railroad, and himself the
industry's most powerful executive, had his
planned 2000 merger with Burlington Northern Sante
Fe not been stymied by U.S. regulators.
Tellier's
accomplishments at CN were all the more impressive
given the low expectations he faced when
then-Prime Minister Brian Mulroney
appointed him CEO of the railway in 1992. Tellier,
a native of Joliette, Que., a lawyer by training
and an Oxford alumnus, had spent virtually
his entire career in the federal bureaucracy.
This earned him few friends or admirers on Bay Street,
where the civil service was generally considered
to be as bloated and inefficient as the railroad
Tellier had been appointed to run. Besides, as
deputy minister of energy in the Trudeau government,
Tellier had overseen the creation of the hated
National Energy Program. (Never mind that he helped
unravel the same program for Mulroney's Conservatives.)
Had they looked
more closely at his career in
Ottawa, however, Tellier's early detractors
would have been less dismissive. Under Mulroney, with
whom he became friends, Tellier rose to become Clerk
of the Privy Council, making him essentially
CEO of the federal bureaucracy and the Prime Minister's
deputy minister. He earned a reputation for
his undying loyalty to Mulroney and, more important,
for getting things done. He was not a popular
leader, and was criticized from within his
own ranks for failing to go to bat for the bureaucracy
in the face of staffing cuts and ministerial
buck-passing. He was, however, feared.
As current CBC president and former Ottawa bureaucrat
Robert Rabinovitch once put it, “Paul is at war, constantly
at war. The way he thinks is war. He's not a
strategic thinker, he's a tactician.” Added
University of Ottawa management professor Gilles
Paquet: “He's
projecting a new, modern, mercenary view of
the public service. The day the master changes, the man does
not
have to betray
anything because
his soul and heart were not there. He was simply
selling his skills.”
Bay Street skepticism about his
appointment at CN notwithstanding, the railway's
Crown corporation status initially protected
Tellier from market scrutiny. Says Canaccord's
Fay: “He had a more measured
pace at CN at which to learn the business than
he's had at Bombardier. He also had time to
literally handpick every one of his senior managers.” One
of them, the CFO, was current BCE Inc. CEO Michael
Sabia, another recruit from the Ottawa bureaucracy.
Together, Tellier and
Sabia prepared the
railway for privatization by squeezing efficiencies
out of every spike and making people afraid
for their jobs.
While remaking CN in 1997, Tellier
somehow found time to sit on the board of Bombardier
at the beckoning of Laurent Beaudoin. As leaders of
French Canada's corporate elite, Beaudoin and
Tellier were natural brothers-in-arms. Both
were passionate
federalists. Tellier had piloted the unity file
for both Pierre Trudeau and Brian Mulroney,
taking
a leading role in the 1980 referendum campaign
and
the 1992 Charlottetown accord, a deal so close
to Beaudoin's heart that he promoted it in the
pay envelope of Canadair employees.
Tellier
joined Bombardier's board during a boom. Or rather,
the boom. In the late 1990s, Bombardier
sprang from being a relatively
minor aerospace player to become a market
leader and the world's third-biggest manufacturer of
civil aircraft, directly behind Boeing and
Airbus. “Bombardier
rode the biggest boom markets in the history
of aerospace—business
jets and regional jets,” says Richard Aboulafia, vice-president
of Teal Group consultancy in Fairfax, Va. “To have
access to both of these market explosions was an unprecedented
opportunity
beyond
anything
anyone could imagine.”
Of course, it took some foresight
to cash in on this bonanza. The 1986 purchase
of Canadair from the federal government laid the foundation
for the creation of an aerospace superstar.
Canadair had a single product—the
Challenger business jet. Beaudoin and his
then-lieutenant Bob Brown, another veteran
of the federal bureaucracy, decided to adapt
the plane
for a new market. They oversaw the development
of the Canadair Regional Jet (CRJ), the most
innovative concept to hit air
travel in years. A
small jet to replace those noisy and languorous
turboprops on short-haul, low-volume flights?
Many in the industry doubted the
economics could
work. Bombardier proved them wrong, selling
more than a thousand CRJs to airlines. The
dot-com wave that created instant
billionaires, meanwhile,
fuelled demand for personal and corporate
jets. Bombardier sold hundreds of its highly
profitable Lears, Challengers and Global
Expresses. Things
were going so well that Brown was duly awarded
the CEO's job in 1999. And Tellier, once Brown's
boss in Ottawa, enthusiastically
supported
the appointment.
So did investors. Sure, they
disliked Bombardier's opaque accounting and
the dual-class share
structure that gave the family 64%
of the votes (since reduced to 58%) while
it held barely 20% of the equity. But in a
boom market, much is forgiven.
In the heady
'90s, Bombardier's aerospace division was churning
out new products faster
than Martha Stewart was coming up with “good
things.” A number of salubrious factors converged to
make this possible: Ottawa was eager to cement
the success of a Canadian-based
multinational with loans and easy export financing
on the sale of planes; development costs were
relatively low, since the new planes were largely
derivations of older planes; and hefty, recurring
cash advances on Bombardier's train contracts
helped cover R&D on the aerospace side.
By the end of the decade,
however, Bombardier was flying into a cloud.
It had stretched its 50-seat CRJ into 70- and 86-seat
versions. To go any higher—say, to 100 seats—meant developing
a brand-new plane. The cost of developing
a new model—dubbed
the BRJ-X—far
outstripped that of any previous product and
outsized all previous undertakings by the
company.
Although they kept the mission top secret, Beaudoin
and Brown even talked to Boeing and
Airbus in the hopes of establishing a
joint venture that would have allowed the
BRJ-X to have a common cockpit with the bigger
planes of either one of those manufacturers.
That way, the Bombardier plane would have
fit into a broader family of jets, making
it more attractive to airlines who seek commonality
in their fleets. Neither Boeing nor Airbus would bite.
The risk of the BRJ-X proved too great for Beaudoin and Brown to stomach. “We
could not make the economics work on an airplane of
100 seats,” says
one former executive who worked on the project. The
BRJ-X died on the drawing board.
After terrorists struck the U.S. on
Sept.
11, 2001, Bombardier lost the luxury of
even contemplating a new plane. The airlines tanked,
parking their planes in the desert as
travellers stayed home. And the onetime dot-com billionaires,
left holding penny stock in the wake of
the boom, had already stopped making payments
on their
fancy jets. Bombardier chopped 3,800 workers
and ended up becoming a used-plane dealer
as
much as a new jet builder. Cash became
scarce.
The cash crunch was all the more severe
because Bombardier had, earlier in 2001,
paid about $1 billion too much to buy
the train manufacturing unit of DaimlerChrysler, known
as Adtranz. The deal made Bombardier the world's biggest
maker of rolling stock,
but the $3 billion in goodwill it came
with
would come back to haunt Beaudoin, who
engineered the transaction. “Clearly the company
was run by two people—Beaudoin
and Brown—who both had their foot on the accelerator,” says
analyst Fay. “When they started hitting potholes
and running out of gas, they had nothing
to fall back on.” Tellier is equally harsh: “What
happened? Some people became obsessed
with revenue growth. As a result, Bombardier
developed 14 aircraft in 14 years—more than Boeing
or Airbus. There is no way anybody can
do that and do it perfectly. Indeed,
we paid dearly for that. Dearly.”
Things were looking
grim indeed in the summer of 2002. Still,
no one expected the blow Brown delivered on Aug. 23, 2002:
the
first profit warning in Bombardier's history.
Credibility is a CEO's first defence in
tough times. And Brown, who had failed
to deliver promised profits, had just lost his. The stock
sank
22% that day. Brown, deservedly or not,
was toast.
“
I was convinced we needed different leadership,” Beaudoin
says of his decision to bag Brown, his former partner
in business and gin
rummy, that December. No executive search
ensued. “My mind was
made up,” Beaudoin says. “Mr. Tellier was
on our board and I had known him for years. Besides,
it would have been difficult
for
me to look at several candidates while
Mr. Brown was still in place. I needed to be discreet.
Mr. Brown became aware only
when I informed
him that I no longer required his services.”
The
market, thrilled as it was with Tellier's
appointment, largely overlooked the manner
in which it was executed. It shouldn't
have. Beaudoin's move to hire Tellier
before even informing Bombardier's
board should have been a reminder of how
differently things operate in family-controlled
companies compared
with widely held ones, such as CN. “At
Bombardier, Tellier's not 100% in control.
There's someone looking over his shoulder,” points
out Canaccord analyst Fay. “That in
itself is a very big thing for Paul. Because
people who are good leaders are used to
making their own decisions.” The market, in its
enthusiasm, also chose to ignore another factor: Tellier's
utter lack of experience in the aerospace
and rolling-stock
businesses. “Tellier's been,
for the last year and a half, on a learning
exercise, finding out what these businesses
are all about,” adds
Fay. “And they're radically
different from running a railroad and
a lot more difficult.” In
particular, both the transportation and
aerospace sides of Bombardier are project-driven,
requiring different skills than the
ones that have
made Tellier a name for himself.
It wasn't
a steep learning curve that Tellier feared
when he took the job. For
a mind like his, that was likely one of
the benefits. No, what gave him second
thoughts about Beaudoin's offer was the
realization that taking the job meant
forgoing the opportunity to watch his
grandkids grow up. But son Marc, now CEO of the
Yellow Pages Group, gave a benediction.
Tellier
pre recalls: “‘Dad,' he said, ‘professionally
this is a no-brainer. It's going to be
fun.'”
Tellier gets animated as he recounts this
story, slouching slightly in a comfy chair
in a meeting room adjacent to his 30th-floor
office on Ren-Lvesque Boulevard. His accented
English betrays his French-Canadian roots,
but the grey flannels and navy V-neck
sweater indicate there's still a lot of
the Oxford prep in Tellier. He has an
angular, almost gaunt, face, a testimony
to his religious dedication to fitness
and a healthful diet. His endurance is
legendary. He knew
he would
need it at Bombardier.
“
When Laurent came to me and said he felt very strongly
that I was the guy who could do it, I
said, ‘You know, this is
going to be a hell of a challenge,'” he says, his
voice rising and eyes widening. “But I thought
it was worth doing....When we compare ourselves to our
neighbours, let's face it, we've not been very
successful in the manufacturing sector
on a big scale. There is Nortel and Bombardier. This
is an icon.” Besides, there was little left
for Tellier to accomplish in the near
term at CN. U.S. regulators had ensured that large-scale
mergers were not in the cards. And, in Hunter
Harrison, Tellier knew he had an able
and ready successor. As a CN executive would tell Tellier,
the time had come for him to “answer to a
higher calling.”
Beaudoin and Tellier spoke extensively
during the fall of 2002 as the decision
to make the leap from CN jelled. The discussions
helped raise Tellier's comfort level.
Perhaps too much so. Given his stellar
reputation at CN, he knew he would have
to “manage down
expectations—big time,” he says. That proved
the least of his problems, however. When Tellier took
over on Jan. 13, 2003,
Bombardier,
he discovered, was in far worse shape
than he had realized. It was rapidly running out of cash.
It was on the verge of breaching
loan covenants
that prohibited its net debt-to-capitalization
ratio from exceeding 50%. Its banks were close to calling
their loans. In
short, Bombardier was
having a near-death experience.
“
When I arrived, I expected my task was going to be
to restructure the business, cut costs and improve
productivity,” Tellier
says. “But my first task ended up being very different
from that ...I was thrown into discussions with the bankers.
I was under enormous
pressure to pull together a turnaround
plan that would be acceptable to them and the credit
rating agencies.” Bombardier's three banking
syndicates—Canadian, European and American—had
dozens of members. Tellier crisscrossed the Western world
making his case to representatives
of almost every one of them. “I decided it was
important for my credibility, given the significance
of the exercise, to do it personally.
I led the discussions, instead of leaving
it to Franois [LeMarchand,
Bombardier's treasurer].”
As the revered CEO of
CN, Tellier had made an awful lot of lenders,
investment bankers and shareholders rich. It was
time for them to return the favour. Not
only did the bankers give him breathing
room, he was able to raise $1.2 billion
by issuing new stock—$400
million more than what he asked for.
The
share issue was only one facet of a massive
balance sheet makeover that
Tellier announced in April, 2003, barely
2 1/2 months after
taking over. The other elements included
$2.2 billion in write-down, and the sale
of Bombardier's
recreational products division. None of
those
decisions—including an earlier one by Tellier to
fire long-time CFO Louis Morin—were easy ones for
Beaudoin to abide by. The stock sale diluted
the family's controlling stake. The write-offs were an
admission
of past mistakes. And the sale of the
Ski-Doo unit—the foundation
on which the company had been built—was akin to
pawning the crown jewels. (The unit, since
renamed BRP, was sold in 2003
to Bain Capital and the Caisse de dpt
et placement du Qubec. The family retains
a 35% stake.)
Tellier admits he and Beaudoin engaged
in “very healthy discussions” concerning
the recapitalization plan. “I'm very impatient.
So, very often, I would raise my voice and he would raise
his voice, and so on,” he
says euphemistically. “But you've got to understand:
He built this company. He has visited every factory we
own. He knows the business inside
out. I mean, just imagine emotionally
how he felt when I walked into his office and said, ‘Laurent,
we've got to sell BRP.'
“
But when he offered me the job, I had said, ‘Laurent,
it's a 100% mandate. I do the whole job.' And he agreed.
Was it difficult
for him
to adjust to that? Very. Was it difficult
for me to adjust to having a majority shareholder across
the hall from my office?
Very.”
Beaudoin does not deny that he had a hard
time accepting Tellier's tough prescription. “It
was not an easy decision for the family.
It goes without saying that had we been
able to, we would have preferred keeping
the recreational products division within
the company. But we supported Mr. Tellier.”
The family
drew a line in the sand soon after, however,
when Tellier mused publicly
about eliminating Bombardier's dual-class
share structure in favour of a one-share,
one-vote regime. This was
part
of Tellier's broader plan to improve Bombardier's
governance—and,
hence, its credibility with investors—and pave
the way for a listing on the New York
Stock Exchange. But Beaudoin and vice-chairman Jean-Louis
Fontaine, another Bombardier lifer who
had married into the family, went ballistic.
In their
eyes, Tellier had overstepped his mandate.
Changing Bombardier's share structure is simply
not on the table. “We've
taken a very clear position on that,” Beaudoin
states. Adds Tellier: “The
decision was taken. I abide by the decision.”
So
much for the 100% mandate. Beaudoin's
overruling of his CEO was hardly a comforting
signal for investors. Nor was Beaudoin's
decision to rehire Louis Morin, the
CFO Tellier had sacked, a few months later
at BRP.
Tellier had no time to worry about
such slights. He had to choose his battles
and he chose astutely, attacking Bombardier's
internal culture. “Simplicity is not a quality
Bombardier has,” he
says. “We have far more complicators than simplifiers.
This is true in our accounting and in
many of our other processes. I'm trying
to change that. When someone is convoluted,
I say, ‘Come to the
point.' I've cut down on these endless
PowerPoint presentations. When someone
is to give a presentation I insist on getting it in advance,
so I can review it. That way, I can cut
them off and say, ‘I
don't have anything to discuss in the
first 38 pages, so let's start at page
39.'”
Adjusting to the Tellier era was hard
for Pierre Lortie, the head of Bombardier
Transportation, the Berlin-based rail
unit. Tellier fired him in November and
undertook to personally
impose a severe crash diet on the division. “When
I started to see the numbers sliding in
the wrong direction at Transportation, I had discussions
back and
forth with the leadership there for three
or four months, but there was no change.
Therefore, I came to the conclusion that I would have
no choice
but to roll up my sleeves and do the job
myself,” Tellier recounts. “The
board was concerned about this. They said, ‘Paul,
you're going to kill yourself. You've
got a full-time job at head
office.'”
It's easy to understand the board's worries.
For more than three months, until last
March, Tellier's weekly routine consisted
of this: He left Montreal at 8 a.m. Sunday,
aboard a company Challenger or Global
Express, for the eight-hour flight
to Berlin, arriving at 10 p.m. local time.
He spent
two days in the office there, and then
caught his return flight to Montreal at
6 p.m., arriving at home just in time
for dinner. On the way over, Tellier pored
over briefing binders on the
sorry state of the rail unit. On the way
back, he opened a second briefcase containing
head-office business. Tellier looked
forward to Tuesdays.
They were especially productive because
he
gained an additional six hours on the
flight back to Montreal. He had, in effect,
discovered the 30-hour
day. “He is the best manager of time I have ever
seen,” says
Moya Greene, a former Transport Canada
bureaucrat and CIBC executive whom Tellier
brought on board last fall as senior vice-president
of operational
effectiveness.
On the weekly treks to
and from Berlin, Tellier imposed a strict
code of silence in the first cabin of the Global Express.
Blabbers were relegated to the back. Tellier
would raise his eyes from his briefing
books only occasionally, to study the
geography
below. Greene marvels at Tellier's discipline,
which includes knowing when to take a
break. The same keen sensitivity to physical
well-being
is evident in his diet. Those pastry platters
that hotels all too often provide in meeting
rooms don't suit him. “Paul needs his protein,” Greene
laughs.
Tellier prescribed the same low-carb
fix for Bombardier's bloated rail unit.
In mid-March, he announced the closure of
seven European plants, 6,600 job cuts
and $777 million in restructuring charges
over three years. Investors hoped that
would be the end of it. But in May, Bombardier
stunned
them again with a $174-million (U.S.)
first-quarter
loss (the company recently switched to
reporting in U.S. currency) on the heels
of $200 million
worth of “contract adjustments” at
the rail division. Investors, weary of
bad news, threw up their hands, knocking
down the stock 20%. Tellier offers this explanation: “Look,
the new guy [rail division president Andr
Navarri] comes in. He knows the business
better than I ever will and he says, ‘I think the
other guys were overly optimistic.'”
Tellier promises,
however, no more nasty surprises at the
train unit. But that
does not mean the division is back on
the rails, either. The mass transit business
is changing. Not long ago, it was a sleepy
industry where public-sector agencies
and their governments
could be counted on not only to pay the
asking price but also to cough up generous
cash advances without a stitch of work
being done. Indeed, Bombardier had about
$2.5 billion (U.S.)
in
advances on its balance sheet at April
30.
Such advancesÊhaveÊtraditionally been
an important source ofÊfunds for the company. But
they're likely to dwindle rapidly in coming
quarters, first because customers are increasinglyÊreluctant
to provide them and second, because Tellier's
vowÊto be disciplined
on pricing meansÊBombardier could end up losing
more bidding wars with its competitors
than it wins. Such is theÊCatch-22 facing
the rail unit: Either hold steady on pricing
and risk losing out on contracts, or bid
aggressively for business butÊsqueeze already minuscule
margins in the process.
Still,Êthe train unit probably
offers more promise for stability thanÊBombardier's
aerospace division. Tellier concedes that
much of the latter's fate isÊbeyond hisÊcontrol. “Only
a fool would argue that there are no external
factors that could affect
us,” he says. Indeed, all but a handful of airlines
remain fragile financially. It would take
little—an
extended Orange Alert in the U.S., for
example—to
ground several of them for good. Bombardier's
order book—down
to $11 billion worth of planes from twice
that a few years ago—is sparse, and getting sparser.
In July, troubled US Airways deferred delivery of 19
CRJs it had
ordered.
Analysts worry that more cancellations
might follow.
This, alas, is the context
in which Tellier must decide whether to
build a new plane. Current market conditions might be
bleak, but manufacturers must look far into the
future, anticipate demand
and be ready with new, ever more efficient
planes when the airlines finally get cleared—by
their creditors, in many cases—for
takeoff. That may come tomorrow. Or it
may never come, at least not for the type
of plane Bombardier could build.
Tellier
has been publicly insisting since his
appointment that Bombardier does not
need to expand its product line. But within
Bombardier, he has had to face
mounting discontent from his engineers,
who are dying to design a new plane. Outside
the company, he has faced growing criticism
for taking what, until recently, looked
like
an ostrich's approach toward Embraer's
success. In June, 2003, New York-based
JetBlue—the
discount airline widely considered a model
for the industry—ordered
100 of Embraer's E190s for $3 billion
(U.S.). Air Canada followed in December
with a $1.35-billion (Canadian) order for 45 of the Embraer
100-seaters. That order is widely expected
to grow to 60 planes, at Bombardier's
expense, as Air
Canada cancels 15 of the 45 CRJs it has
on order and replaces them with E190s—that is,
if the airline exits court protection as scheduled on
Sept. 30.
The Air Canada-Embraer deal appears to
have been a turning point for Tellier.
Behind the scenes in January, Bombardier
hired a headhunter. Its mission: to find
a seasoned aerospace executive who could
pilot Bombardier's entry
into the 100-plus-seat market. In the
end, Bombardier did not have to look very
far. Before joining Bombardier in March,
Gary Scott, 53, had been working for the
previous
20 months at the
Montreal operations of flight simulator
maker CAE Inc. Before that,
he had spent 28 years at Boeing in Seattle,
a
stint that included overseeing the aircraft
maker's hugely successful 737 platform.
Scott came to CAE as the likely replacement for retiring CEO Derek
Burney. When Bombardier
came calling, he faced what other people
might have considered a tough choice.
Not Scott. “Even Derek said, ‘How
can you give up an opportunity to be
CEO?' But if you're in the aerospace business, there's
nothing
bigger and more enticing than launching
a new airplane program. It just sort of trumps
every other opportunity.” (And
the top job at CAE? That went to Bob
Brown.)
Bolstered by a $35-million (U.S.) budget and
a team of 165—which will grow to 250 over the
next year—Scott's mandate
is to make the business case for (or
against) a new family of jets. Already,
he's ruled out going up directly against Embraer's
100-seat E190.
Bombardier's
three-plane family, tentatively dubbed
the C Series, would cover the span from
110 seats to 135 seats—a market Scott puts at
$250 billion (U.S.) over two decades. The
series, targeted for takeoff in 2010,
would land smack dab in Airbus and Boeing
territory. The key to Bombardier's success,
therefore, lies in its ability to build a
plane that is more
efficient (by at least 15%, in Tellier's
reckoning) than those offered by Boeing
or Airbus.
That is a costly proposition—a start-up
outlay of at least $2 billion. A big
portion of that would be eaten up by the R&D effort to come
up with the lighter composite materials
that will create a significantly more
fuel-efficient plane. Bombardier's pockets are
far too shallow to
finance such an endeavour on its own.
It will have a hard enough time coming
up with its proposed one-third share, as investors
cringe at the
prospect of another dilutive equity
issue. The company is counting on governments
and risk-sharing suppliers to come up with
the other two-thirds.
On the first front,
Scott made his case to deputy ministers in Ottawa
this spring. The ultimate decision lies with Prime
Minister Paul Martin. But Bombardier
is not counting only its Canadian
chickens. It's also talking to decision-makers
in Northern Ireland, where its Short
Brothers unit already builds fuselages
for the CRJ, and to state governments
south of the border. It
hopes to provoke a bidding war among
jurisdictions for the high-quality
jobs that would come
with
building airplanes.
The response from
engine makers, meanwhile, has been keen, Scott says.
U.S.-based Pratt & Whitney and Britain's Rolls-Royce
will work together on a proposal
through their IAE partnership, while General Electric and
France's Snecma will collaborate
on a submission through their CFMI joint venture.
Scott describes the
C Series as “kind of like Apollo 13. Failure
is not an option.” It is an awkward comparison.
Apollo 13 was a heroic space odyssey—overcoming
an explosion in one of its oxygen
tanks—but
did not fulfill its mission of
a moon landing. Bombardier could use a better
simile. Indeed, aerospace
consultant Richard Aboulafia,
for one, is “very doubtful” Bombardier's
C Series will fly. “I'm
not really sure what Bombardier
could do for this market that
Boeing or Airbus haven't already done,” says
Aboulafia, who briefed Industry Canada officials
on market trends
in March. “Sure, everybody says
they're going to be 15% to 20%
more efficient. But it's hard to imagine anything
technologically
that would allow Bombardier to
beat the [Boeing] B737 or [Airbus] A320.” Those
planes are generally configured to seat many
more passengers
(up to 180) than the C Series
proposes to carry.
But those bigger planes are more
costly to run, and not economical
for the passenger loads Bombardier is aiming
at. As
for the Boeing and Airbus
offerings in the 100-to-135-seat
category, Scott brands them as
duds: either too big or too heavy, or too limited
in range,
to go head-to-head
with Bombardier's proposed jet.
But then, either cash-rich Boeing or government-supported
Airbus,
or both of them, could react to
a threat from Bombardier by plowing
resources into developing better
100-to-135-seat planes or discounting
their existing models deeply enough
to make them irresistible to cash-poor airlines. “Of
course, Boeing and Airbus have the means to compete
against us,” Beaudoin replies. “But
I don't think that [100-to-135-seat]
market is a priority for them right now.” Boeing
is focusing on launching its 7E7,
or so-called dreamliner, while Airbus has its
hands
full developing its A380 super-jumbo
jet.
Still, there are those in the aerospace industry who think all Bombardier's
C-Series talk is simply a ploy to provoke either Boeing or Airbus into
a marriage of convenience. Bombardier, after all, previously tried
to strike a deal with those manufacturers when it contemplated launching
the BRJ-X. An Alliance would forfend, on one front, anyway, the sort
of subsidy wars that Boeing has waged with Airbus (and Embraer with
Bombardier). Tellier, Beaudoin and Scott all concede they would be
interested in talking to them again.
"
Our mindset is not to exclude any reasonable, possible
option," Tellier says. "What kind of partnership
could take place with another aircraft manufacturer?
It could be project specific. It could be a joint venture.
It could be an equity position. It could take several
forms." It's easy to understand the appeal of such
a partnership for Bombardier. It would neutralize a
powerful competitor. It would cut the risks associated
with the C Series. And it would improve the sales prospects
for Bombardier's plane by making it compatible with
the jet families of one of the bigger players. Boeing
is the most likely partner for Bombardier , given Airbus's
indirect collaboration with Embraer on military contracts.
But in June, Allan Mulally, Boeing's head of commercial
aircraft, said he wasn't interested in a deal with Bombardier.
The latter, however, isn't yet taking no for an answer.
It can't afford to. If the C Series is ever to get off
the ground , and Bombardier to get out of the hole it's
been in since 9/11, it must undergo a far more radical
metamorphosis than the one Tellier has thus far imposed.
It could mean splitting the company in two -- rail and
aerospace -- and selling all or part of the plane unit
to Boeing. Certainly, 6% operating margins, the only
objective Tellier has publicly set for himself, won't
be enough to placate investors.
Whatever end his changes produce, Tellier may not be
there to see it. It's not been an easy time for the
Easy Rider. Even his stamina has its limits, after all.
He is halfway through a three-year contract, one that
can be extended for two years, although he refers to
fiscal 2006as the culmination of three-year reorganization. "I
want to turn it around," he says. "Well, I
want to make sure the turning is well underway, if not
completed.
But let's face it. We're talking about changing
the culture and
it takes time to do that. My successor,
whoever he or she is, is going
to have a job
cut out for them.” The shakeup at the Bomber
has but begun.
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